Sunday, April 19, 2009

Thailand: the army steps in

The army has finally taken sides and started taking action to disperse red shirt protesters. Even then, it seems like the army is divided, with certain officers being quoted as facing a dilemma over whether to follow orders to quell the rebellion or not. This isn't surprising given that the red-yellow divide tends to be along socioeconomic lines; it is inevitable with any army that most of the soldiers, particularly the rank and file and junior officers, come from lower socioeconomic classes.

As said before, the army's quelling of the protests only stops the violence in the short term, and definitely doesn't solve any of the underlying issues. It only raises more questions about double standards - the PAD was able to blatantly seize various public buildings and airports in the country without any reaction from the government.

Now, the question is, what is the UDD going to do in reaction to this? They have several options besides waiting for the next elections: an underground guerrilla campaign, provoke the military to crack down and thus bring international pressure on the Thai government, or perhaps even incite a mutiny in the army. Who knows? The only thing for sure is that they will retaliate in one way or another.

Either way, the Abhisit government doesn't seem to last very long in this power play.

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